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UNCTAD: War in Ukraine Disrupts Global Supply Chains

Major ports in Europe are grappling with warehousing and storage capacity crises due to Russia and Ukraine cargo pile-up, a situation that has disrupted container shipping operations and thrown global value chains into disarray, the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has said. UNCTAD, in an assessment of the war in Ukraine and its effects on maritime trade logistics, reports that cargo destined for Russia and Ukraine is piling up at ports like Hamburg, Rotterdam, Constanta, and Istanbul. The disruption has left shippers facing delays and an increase in detention and demurrage charges at ports. The ripple effects have had significant pressure on warehousing and storage capacity, leading to an increase in supply chain costs, an increase in consumer prices, and an unrelenting surge of inflation across the globe. With the high container freight costs being passed on, consumer prices have increased by 1.6 percent. Global import price levels are expected to increase on average by 12 percent as a result of sustained freight rate increases. “Global trade depends on a complex system of ports and ships that connect the world. If global trade is to flow more smoothly, it must be ensured that Ukrainian ports are open to international shipping and that collaboration among transport stakeholders continues to provide services,” states UNCTAD. The report finds that the war in Ukraine is stifling trade and logistics of the country and the Black Sea region, increasing global vessel demand and the cost of shipping around the world. In effect, Ukraine’s trading partners now have to turn to other countries for the commodities they import due to disruptions in regional logistics, halting of port operations, destruction of important infrastructure, trade restrictions, increased insurance costs, and higher fuel prices. Many countries are now being forced to look further afield for suppliers of oil, gas, and grain, the consequence of which has been an increase in shipping distances along with transit times and costs. “Grains are of particular concern given the leading role of the Russian Federation and Ukraine in agrifood markets, and its nexus to food security and poverty reduction,” says the report. Russia and Ukraine account for 53 percent of global trade in sunflower oil and seeds and 27 percent of wheat. A total of 36 countries import more than 50 percent of their wheat from the two warring nations. Ukraine, which exported around 50 million tonnes of grain in 2021 and had projected a growth of three percent in global exports this year, has been forced to revise projections downward and expects exports to shrink by 3.2 percent. About 90 percent of Ukraine’s grain export capacity has been cut off by the Russian blockade of Odesa and other Black Sea ports. In addition, over the four-month period from February to May, the Baltic Dry Index increased by 59 percent, which is expected to lead to an additional increase of 3.7 percent in consumer food prices globally. Almost half of the increase is due to higher transport costs, resulting from higher freight rates and longer distances. Middle-income nations are expected to be the hardest hit. Apart from commodities, the conflict is having adverse impacts on energy with higher prices exacerbating the challenges faced by shippers. With trade restrictions and shifts in trading patterns leading to a surge in ton-mile demand, daily rates for smaller-size tankers that are key for regional oil trading in the Black Sea, Baltic Sea, and Mediterranean Sea regions, have dramatically increased. The higher energy costs have also led to higher bunker prices, raising shipping costs for all maritime transport sectors. By the end of May 2022, the global average price for very low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) reached over $1,000 per tonne, a 64 percent increase compared to the beginning of the year and the average fuel surcharges charged by container shipping lines have risen close to 50 percent since the beginning of the war.

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Two Methanol-Fueled Feeder Ships to Launch North Sea Green Corridor

MPC Container Ships is working with the North Sea Container Line to launch the first green corridor along the North Sea with the deployment of Norway’s first methanol-powered containerships. The companies plan to launch the vessels in the second half of 2024 and expect that they can cut net CO2 emissions by 45 percent and increase it up to 100 percent through the use of green methanol derived from renewable electricity and captured CO2 when the e-fuel becomes readily available. The order for the two new containerships was placed by Germany-based MPCC which will own 90 percent of a newly created holding company. Topeka MPC Maritime, a partnership between MPC Capital and Wilhelmsen Group focused on decarbonized shipping, will hold the remainder. The two containerships, which will each have a capacity of 1,300 TEU, will be built at China’s Taizhou Sanfu Ship Engineering. Each of the vessels will be outfitted with dual-fuel engines designed to operate on methanol as well as conventional MGO. Each will cost $39 million to build, and upon completion, they will be chartered for 15 years to the North Sea Container Line. The Norwegian short-sea operator plans to use the vessels to phase out the operation of three of its older diesel-powered vessels, which provide regular service between various ports in Norway, Rotterdam, and Hamburg. It is part of the company’s plan to complete its transition to decarbonize its operations. NCL acknowledges that methanol will have a higher operating cost, but says it will become the default choice for its operations, and customers will have to explicitly request diesel-fueled ships if they want to go the slightly cheaper route.

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Proman Stena Bulk successfully completes US Gulf Coast’s first barge-to-ship methanol bunkering

Proman Stena Bulk, the joint venture between leading tanker company Stena Bulk and the leading methanol producer Proman, has today announced the successful completion of the first ever barge-to-ship methanol bunkering on the US Gulf Coast. The JV tankers Stena Pro Marine and Stena Prosperous were refuelled with methanol via barge while discharging clean petroleum products at a terminal in the Port of Houston in the first week of April. Stena Pro Marine was bunkered with 1,408MT of methanol, and Stena Prosperous was refuelled with 1,203MT during the operation. Both ships were time-chartered to a global trading house at the time of the refuelling. The barge bunkering operation was conducted jointly with Kirby Corporation, the largest tanker barge provider in the United States. The ability to refuel both vessels with methanol whilst they were alongside demonstrates the ease and minimal infrastructure requirements associated with methanol as a marine fuel, as well as its widespread availability.   Speaking on the announcement, Anita Gajadhar, Executive Director, Marketing, Logistics and Shipping, Proman, said: “Completing the first barge-to-ship methanol bunkering on the US Gulf Coast is a tremendous achievement for the Proman Stena Bulk joint venture. The Port of Houston is a major global cargo hub with significant latent methanol storage capacity. These qualities made it a natural testbed for our first US ship-to-ship bunkering. “Proman Stena Bulk continues to work with partners across the supply chain to develop methanol bunkering facilities worldwide and at key strategic bunker hubs. Announcements like today’s continue to prove the viability of the methanol marine fuel supply chain.” “Kirby was pleased to be the service provider for this job,” said Kirby Marine Group President Christian O’Neil. “It was a natural for us: we have extensive expertise with methanol as a cargo, with conventional bunkering, and with barge-to-ship lightering of all manner of products. We are committed to remaining a leader in energy transportation, regardless of the form that energy takes. We look forward to doing this again and again in Houston and beyond.” Methanol is widely available in the Port of Houston, which is the United States’ busiest port in terms of foreign tonnage. Thanks to the presence of major petrochemicals hubs and significant storage capacity, more than 275,000MT of methanol is available at the port. The landmark first bunkering supports wider efforts by US ports and shipping companies to make the industry more sustainable. The Port of Houston aims to become carbon neutral in the next 30 years. A key pillar of the port’s strategy is the deployment of alternative fuels and clean energy sources. The bunkering also supports U.S. commitments to cut methane emissions by 30% by 2030 under the Global Methane Pledge, which was announced at the COP26 climate summit in 2021. Methanol as a marine fuel clearly supports the ambitions of the pledge to cut back on methane emissions across the energy value chain in the near term.   Currently available conventional methanol, produced from natural gas, virtually eliminates SOx and particulate matter, cuts NOx by 80%, and reduces tank-to-wake CO2 emissions from the vessel’s commercial operations by up to 15% compared to conventional marine fuels. By using methanol, the joint venture vessels are futureproofed against every incoming emissions target, as greater quantities of low-carbon and green methanol become available for blending and bunkering in the near future. Production of green methanol from sustainable sources such as sustainable bio-mass or renewable energy is growing and highly scalable. Proman is investing in its own low-carbon and green methanol production capabilities, including a new 100,000 tonne per year methanol facility in development in North America. The project is currently being constructed with a target start of operations in 2025. The facility will produce bio-methanol from non-recyclable forestry residues and municipal solid waste and will substantially contribute to the circular economy. The news of this first US Gulf methanol barge-to-ship bunkering comes ahead of the naming ceremony for Stena Promise in the Port of Rotterdam. Rotterdam was the site of Proman Stena Bulk’s first barge-to-ship methanol bunkering, in August 2022, when Stena Pro Patria took on the fuel during a regularly scheduled port call. Source: Stena Bulk

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Nor-Shipping announces four finalists for Next Generation Ship Award

Nor-Shipping has revealed the final shortlist for this year’s Next Generation Ship Award, with the winner to be announced on Monday 5 June at Oslo City Hall. The prestigious accolade, now in its tenth year, pits newbuilds, retrofits and conversions against one another, with the title going to the project trailblazing new industry standards for smart, sustainable maritime operations. Organisers say competition this year has been “intense”. Award President Remi Eriksen, Group President and CEO, DNV, spearheaded this year’s initiative with an expert international jury eventually deciding on a shortlist of three newbuilds and one retrofit. They are: Misje Eco Bulk’s Misje Vita, built at Colombo Dockyard in Sri Lanka; Terntank’s Hybrid Tankers (pictured), currently under construction in China; Neoline’s Neoliner 136, now being built in Turkey by RMK Marine; and Mitsubishi Corporation’s Pyxis Ocean, which will be retrofitted with innovative wind assist technology under the CHEK project. Sidsel Norvik, Director, Nor-Shipping, says this year’s entries spanned a “huge spectrum” of vessel types, demonstrating the “ambition of an entire industry targeting cleaner, greener and smarter ways to do business.” Norvik comments: “From container ships, to bulk carriers, through to ro-ro vessels, ferries and specialist projects such as cable layers, the nominations this year showed how segment after segment is working hard, and innovating brilliantly, to meet sustainability goals. This made for some very tough competition, and lively debate, as entrants were whittled down to just four standout projects. “The remaining projects could all be worthy winners in their own right and we applaud the owners’ determination to advance the transformation of maritime operations. These vessels are leading the way for the industry and we look forward to revealing which one eventually takes the title of the Nor-Shipping 2023 Next Generation Ship.” The shortlisted vessels were assessed across the key criteria of energy efficiency, innovation, suitability and flexibility, technology utilisation, safety and security, and environmental sustainability. All types of ship were given equal consideration, regardless of size or segment. To qualify for the award, newbuilds had to be scheduled for delivery within three years of Nor-Shipping 2023, while retrofits and conversions must be undertaken after the original date of the last biennial event scheduled for 2021. The mix of three newbuilds and one retrofit project is a repeat of the shortlist for the 2022 award, eventually won by Havila Voyages’ coastal cruise ferry Havila Capella. However, unlike 2022, three of the four vessels this year featured wind power, with one utilising it as its main power source. Each of the competing entries is remarkable in its own right. Misje Vita is a 5,000dwt shortsea bulk carrier, owned by Norway’s Misje Rederi. The vessel has a hybrid propulsion system developed by the owner in co-operation with Wärtsilä, eliminating NOx and offering a 47% reduction in SOx and CO2. The 1,600kW main engine is complemented by a 1,000kW h battery system and shaft generator/motor, with a shore connection enabling emission free port calls. Swedish operator Terntank’s Hybrid Tanker 15,000dwt newbuildings, now being built in China, will be capable of running on e-methanol where available, feature battery systems and will also boast a suction sail system that could reduce emissions by a further 8%. Mitsubishi Corporation’s 80,926dwt Kamsarmax bulk carrier Pyxis Ocean is the retrofit entry, with a new sail system for the 2017-built ship showcasing BAR Tech’s WindWings Technology. One of the two sails is being funded by the EU as part of the Horizon 2020 Project. Finally, wind will be the main source of power for the fourth shortlisted candidate, Neoline’s Neoliner 136, which will have 3,000m2 of sail area. The ro-ro vessel, which can also carry containers, is the culmination of a more than a decade long project to build a transatlantic cargo liner powered by wind alone. French shipbuilder Chantiers de l’Atlantique is supplying its SolidSail system. An MGO-fuelled auxiliary engine will also be fitted for port operations and electricity supply. Nor-Shipping 2023 runs from 6-9 June in Lillestrøm and Oslo. In addition to the main exhibition and the Ocean Leadership Conference, a range of themed conferences include the first ever Nor-Shipping Offshore Wind and Offshore Aquaculture Conferences, the Second Maritime Hydrogen Conference, and the Fourth International Autonomy Summit. Entrance tickets have now been released, with an early-bird discount available prior to 1 May. Included in the price is free use of public transport in Oslo (Zone 1) and between the Lillestrøm exhibition centre, entrance to all the exhibition days, access to the After Work @Aker Brygge social scene in Oslo, and entrance to all Technical Seminars and Blue Talks. Source: Nor-Shipping

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Price cap on Russian crude could soon face its biggest test

Western price caps on Russian exports coincide with steep discounts on Russian crude and diesel — but not because of the caps themselves. There are fewer buyers of Russia’s exports, with the EU, U.S., U.K. and Australia banning cargos altogether and others pulling back in fear of future sanctions. The lower the competition, the lower the price, thus the Russian discounts. But the cap itself could soon come into play on the crude side, meaning the sanctions landscape for tankers could get a lot more complicated. Russian Urals approaching price cap The G-7 and EU implemented a $60-per-barrel cap for Russian crude on Dec. 5 and a $100-per-barrel cap for Russian diesel on Feb. 5. G-7 and EU shipping service providers — including the all-important U.K. ship insurers — can participate in a voyage if they have written attestations that the cargo is priced below the cap. Around a quarter of Russian seaborne exports are in the Pacific via the Eastern Siberia Pacific Ocean (ESPO) pipeline, loading in the port of Kozmino. The remaining export volume is primarily Urals grade crude loading in the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk and the Baltic Sea port of Primorsk. According to price assessments by Argus, ESPO crude out of Kozmino is well above the cap and has been so since the beginning of sanctions. ESPO closed Thursday at $71.56 per barrel (based on the “free on board” or FOB price, which excludes shipping costs). Now, the price of Urals is getting uncomfortably close to the cap. It is trading at a 35% discount to Brent, but as Brent rises in the wake of OPEC cuts and rebounding demand, Urals is now within a few dollars of the cap. Urals hit a recent high of $57 per barrel on Tuesday, according to Argus data. OFAC warns on ESPO trade According to Vortexa, the Russian trade out of the Black Sea and Baltic Sea is dominated by Greek tankers, whereas ESPO loadings are dominated by Russian and Chinese tankers. However, there are shipping service providers bound by G-7 and EU price-cap rules involved in the ESPO crude trade out Kozmino, as well as in Europe. This is raising red flags, given that this crude is clearly well over the cap, spurring a special alert from the U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) on Tuesday. “OFAC is aware of reports that ESPO and other crudes exported via Pacific ports in the Russian Federation, such as Kozmino, may be trading above the cap and may be using covered services provided by U.S. persons,” said the sanctions enforcement agency. We issued this alert to provide an additional warning to U.S. industry to be careful if you’re dealing with ESPO or other Pacific Russian crudes,” said Claire O’Neill McCleskey, assistant director in OFAC’s compliance office, during a Capital Link webinar on Thursday. She said U.S. entities may have been provided false documentation and may have been unaware of a ship’s location due to manipulation of Automatic Identification System (AIS) ship-position data, a common practice known as “spoofing.” “Specifically, what we’re seeing, which led to us to issue this alert, is that sometimes there will be a discrepancy between what a very basic vessel-tracking service shows and what a more sophisticated tracking service shows,” McCleskey said. The basic tracking system will not show a call at Kozmino; the more sophisticated service will. Asked by FreightWaves whether OFAC had contacted any of the U.S. entities that might be involved in the ESPO trade above the cap and whether any actions were being considered, she replied, “Unfortunately, I can’t answer that one directly. But I will just say that information reported to us by U.S. persons is a very important source of information and we’re obviously conducting quite a lot of industry engagement.” More Western tankers in Urals trade The complications for tanker shipping would be much more extreme if Urals pricing breached the cap for an extended period, as ESPO already has. Oil prices in general are predicted to increase in the second half of this year, implying future upward pressure on Urals. The Baltic and Black Sea trades were largely handled by the so-called “shadow fleet” immediately following the Dec. 5 price cap and EU import ban. Shadow tankers are generally defined as those with opaque ownership that operate outside G-7 and EU financial, shipping and insurance regimes. Brokerage BRS estimated that nine out of 10 Russian crude export cargoes were carried by shadow tankers immediately following Dec. 5, but it’s now down to only three of 10, with only one in five Russian petroleum product cargoes loaded on shadow tankers. Mainstream tankers using Western shipping services have become heavily involved in the Russian trade out of the Baltic and Black seas. Alex Younevitch, head of freight for Argus, told FreightWaves: “The proportion that the shadow fleet takes [of] Russian barrels has been decreasing gradually. Shipowners in the general market are now more used to the procedures of getting P&I [insurance] coverage of Russian business. “The shadow fleet is still active, though, as it can be perceived as convenient by some players,” Younevitch said. Argus shines light on sanctions premiums Mainstream tanker players are entering the trade not just because they’re more comfortable with the cap system, but because it’s financially lucrative. The extent of the “sanctions premium” is the focus of a new freight pricing product introduced by Argus on Wednesday. It assesses average weekly Russian crude freight costs (including both the mainstream and shadow fleets) to China and India versus a non-Russian-cargo benchmark. To take one example, Argus’ data shows that the freight cost to move Urals from Novorossiysk to the west coast of India aboard an Aframax tanker (with a cargo of 80,000 tons) earned an average of 42% more than a baseline Aframax over the six weeks ending last Friday. The Russian cargoes earned as much as 57% more in freight in the week ending March 31 in this particular trade. The premium had

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Drewry: World Container Index Up by 4% This Week

Drewry’s composite World Container Index increased by 4% to $1,773.58 per 40ft container this week – the first increase in 15 weeks. Our detailed assessment for Thursday, 20 April 2023 • The composite index has increased by 4% this week, but has dropped by 77% when compared with the same week last year. • The latest Drewry WCI composite index of $1,774 per 40-foot container is now 83% below the peak of $10,377 reached in September 2021. It is 34% lower than the 10-year average of $2,688, indicating a return to more normal prices, but remains 25% higher than average 2019 (pre-pandemic) rates of $1,420. • The composite index increased by 4% to $1,773.58 per 40ft container, but is 77% lower than the same week in 2022. Transpacific eastbound rates rose, reflecting the General Rate Increases implemented by carriers from mid-April. Freight rates on Shanghai – New York gained 12% or $297 to $2,849 per feu. Rates on Shanghai – Los Angeles surged 11% or $182 to settle at $1,856 per 40ft box. Rates on Shanghai – Genoa inched up by 1% to $2,268 per 40ft container. However, rates on New York – Rotterdam fell 5% to $969 per feu. Rates on Rotterdam – Shanghai and Los Angeles – Shanghai dropped 4% each to $618 and $1,009 per 40ft box, respectively. Rates on Rotterdam – New York have now decreased for 19 consecutive weeks and saw a weekly drop of 1% to $4,881 per 40ft container. Rates on Shanghai – Rotterdam hovered around the previous week’s level. Drewry expects East-West spot rates on routes other than the transatlantic to rise in the next few weeks. Source: Drewry

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Schedule Reliability Improves, but Forecasted to Level Off for 2023

Despite all the reports that congestion is declining in many ports around the world as demand has softened, the major carriers have not been able to make significant gains in overall schedule reliability. The overall performance remains behind 2021 in spite of a decline in average delays. Analysts are beginning to believe that the industry has fallen into an ongoing range near its historic lows. “Global schedule reliability seems to continue to follow the trend seen in 2021, fluctuating within a small range but at a slightly lower base,” said Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence. “The 2022 score has been slightly below the 2021 level in each of the first five months.” Based on Sea-Intelligences’ analysis of reliability across 34 different trade lanes and more than 60 carriers, they reported a slightly better than two percent improvement in average month-over-month on-time figures for the carriers. In four out of the five first months of the year, the carriers have seen an improvement in reliability coming up from an all-time low of 30 percent in January 2022 to 36.4 percent in May. However, in 2021 the industry averaged better than 36 percent reliability in the first five months and nearly 70 percent in 2020. The declines in backlogs, however, appear to be showing up in the average delay. Declining from an all-time high of nearly eight days in January 2022, it has been down each month this year reaching an average of 6.17 days in May. “The average delay for late vessel arrivals decreased once again,” says Murphy. “The delay figure is now firmly below the 7-day mark, but it still continues to be the highest across each month when compared historically, albeit with the margin decreasing sharply.” Another factor that may be contributing to the recent improvements could be the declines in demand that many of the major shipping companies have begun to report. With inflation rampant in most parts of the world and fears over a potential recession, consumer demand began to level off and decline after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. With many consumers worried about the near term, carriers have begun to pull back on their operations after nearly two years when every ship was pressed into service. “Vessel nominal TEU capacity data shows there’s more tonnage available, but carriers appear to be putting the brakes on softening spot rates by tightening up supply on certain routes while switching tonnage to the most profitable trade lanes,” said Josh Brazil, VP of supply chain insights at industry platform Project44. Brazil points to a rise in the number of blanked sailings in recent weeks, but with skyrocketing fuel costs he also believes that some carriers may be electing to save fuel by slow-steaming vessels. It is unclear how Shanghai’s lockdowns which persisted through May impacted carriers’ performance. Sea Intelligence reflects that half of the 14 largest carriers saw a decline in their schedule reliability year-over-year in May.  A third of the carriers also saw a month-to-month decline between April and May 2022. Despite that, Maersk, which has been leading the pack, was the first to reach 50 percent reliability in May 2022, achieving a better than four percent improvement year-over-year. Similarly, although starting from a lower point, both Evergreen and ONE achieve significant improvements to approach the overall average of the largest carriers. Among the group, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd, and Zim, however, had significant year-over-year declines in their schedule reliability. Analysts point out that shippers historically increased volumes in the third calendar quarter as they prepare for peak selling seasons and are expected to possibly start shippers earlier this year to avoid the delays they experienced in 2021. Carriers are believed to be preparing for increased volumes meaning that the gains seen in schedule reliability and reduction in average delays may level off if volumes do increase in the coming weeks and months.

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